by Phil Rosenzweig
If you're a huge fan of cognitive psychology like me, and enjoy learning how to improve your decision making, than this is truly the right book for you.
The book begins with a large engineering firm concocting a proposal for a large competitive contract. Rosenzweig wastes no time exploring the many tangible parallels concerning money-earning, or money-losing decisions concerning this bid, and the many areas this book intends on exploring.
For the fact that baseball decisions, such as when to bunt or which pitcher to play, to how a computer is a more accurate predictor of Supreme Court decisions that the so-called "experts', this book is a fundamental prerequisite for anyone wishing to replace their fallacy-driven human logic with models that will chart a better course for many types of decision-making.
Statistics are a funny things that never lie. Instead, they are a non-emotional reminders of the past that can help guide more productive futures.
Unfortunately, humans are built with mechanisms that have their own agenda (memory recency, emotion, etc.) which impairs our decision-making.
For example, many baseball experts would assume that using the classic bunt in order to get a man to second base while enduring one out is a better strategy toward achieving a score. Unfortunately for many professional coaches, this is simply not true
In accordance with league statistics, having a man on second base with one out gives you a .71, of scoring a run, whereas having a runner on first with no outs gives you a .93 chance of scoring. Right here we can see how applying a statistical method versus a human judgement can already guide better decisions with far less effort, and far more confidence.
This books covers so many strategies and tactics toward better decision-making that it can hardly be summarized. From how to shoot a basketball, to when it is productive to be optimistic, or how to approach landing a NASA space shuttle, this book leaves no mystery as to how you should arrive at an answer to a problem, and why.
The bottom line is if you want to make "better" decisions, no matter how you earn a buck, this book is an indispensable addition to your personal library.
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